Under the most basic of circumstances, predicting hall of fame voting of any sort is a futile exercise. Yet the upcoming 5 years or so of MLB Hall of Fame voting will feature players that played in an era that was anything but "basic" or "normal" when compared to the historical mean.
This crop of retired players who are or soon will be eligible for Hall of Fame consideration played between the early 1990s and mid to late 2000s. This era is so heavily associated with performance enhancing drugs that some want the statistics for these 10 to 15 years to be either rubber-stamped with asterisks or completely eradicated from all historical record. Ultra traditionalists go so as far as branding this era as immoral and unethical. "Purge the inflated numbers like the contagion they are!", some cry. Anyway, you get the point that this is still fresh in people's minds 7-plus years after mandatory drug testing was implemented.
Which brings me back to the Hall of Fame. Starting next year, more and more players will be on the ballot from the 1990s era. So here is what I think the voting will look like from 2012 to 2017. There is nothing scientific about my methodology although I tried to take into account the typical voter's "passionate" viewpoint on the players in question. The only prerequisite is that I started with the Top 10 vote getters in 2011 as the starting list in 2012. Here is what I came up with along with a few carry-overs from year to year.
You'll notice that I don't have Schilling or Pedro Martinez voted in. Not because they are not deserving but because they're are other players who I believe will be voted before them.
2012
Barry Larkin 3rd 62.1% YES
Jack Morris 13th 53.5% YES
Lee Smith 10th 45.3% NO
Jeff Bagwell 2nd 41.7% NO
Tim Raines 5th 37.5% NO
E. Martinez 3rd 32.9% NO
Trammell 11th 24.3% NO
Walker 2nd 20.3% NO
McGwire 6th 19.8% NO
Mcgriff 3rd 17.9% NO
2013
Legitimate hold-overs from 2012 who have a good shot:
Bagwell YES
Lee Smith NO
Bonds NO
Clemens NO
Piazza Maybe
Sosa NO
Schilling Maybe
Biggio YES
2014
Legitamate hold-overs from 2013
Schilling NO
Piazza Maybe
Maddux YES
Thomas YES
Glavine YES
2015
Legitamate hold-over from 2014
Piazza Maybe
R. Johnson YES
P. Martinez NO
Smoltz YES
Sheffield NO
2016
Legitamate hold-over from 2015
Piazza
Ken Griffey, Jr YES
Billy Wagner NO
Trevor Hoffman YES
2017
M. Ramirez NO
(assumming they retire at the end of 2011)
Vizquel YES
Thome YES
Northeast Ohio weather and science blog covering severe storms, long term outlooks, climate, behavioral meteorology, technology and other observations
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Thursday, July 21, 2011
High Temperatures above 95 since 1980
This graphic tells it all. Most of these days occurred in the drought summer of 1988. We should easily make it above 95 today. Already 90 and its only 11AM.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
June 15th to July 17th Temperatures Since 1991
We are in the midst of our first heat wave across northern Ohio. Temperatures will stay above 90 for several days until the heat pushes back to the west late this weekend. Is this type of heat across the country common or a rarity? Below is a plot of temperatures compared to normal for JUNE 15th through JULY 17th for each of the last 20 years starting with this year. Warmer colors indicate temperatures above normal.
Check out 1998 and 1994. The heat looks very similar to what has been going on most of this summer.
Check out 1998 and 1994. The heat looks very similar to what has been going on most of this summer.
Notice the core of the heat in Oklahoma and Texas |
Heat last year was along the East Coast, Washington, D.C. |
Two year ago, the heat was once again over Texas |
Heat in 2008 was along the West Coast. Cooler in the Great Lakes |
Heat in 2007 in the Pacific Northwest |
2006 featured heat in the norther tier and out West |
2005 heat: Central Plains |
Very little heat here |
Cooler temps from Texas to New York |
Heat across the northern 1/2 of the US |
Heat out west in 2001 |
Heat in the deep south/cooler north |
Heat in New england, cooler in the deep south |
Look familiar? Heat across Texas and Oklahoma |
Temps stayed near normal |
Heat over Texas; cooler in the Great Lakes |
Well below normal out west; heat in Canada |
Look familar? Heat in Texas, New Mexico and in New England |
In 1993, heat was located East |
Temps well below normal across most of the US |
Heat across the Great Lakes; cooler than normal out west |
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Local Flooding in Ohio...Technical Issues This Morning
Today was a very busy day on multiple fronts. First shortly after the start of the 4:30AM show, the news server went down and went down hard. Without going into too many technical details, you only need to know that we had no video, no audio, no stories, no flashy animations. Basically, the anchors had to read the news on camera for several hours. In between stories, they dutifully filled the space with clever banter sometimes hinting at the difficulties of the morning. Needless to say, it was an exercise in mental toughness not only for the anchors but for the producers and countless other behind-the-scenes people who painstakingly found ways to get the long show on the air. Of course, inclement weather such as flooding and storms make the show a bit easier to produce. When all else fails or you run out of options, toss it to the weatherguy, right? Today though, it was out of necessity and it was actually necessary. Bottom line, all worked out fine. The shows went off surprisingly smooth. As of this writing, the server is almost at 100%...maybe not.
Back to the flooding and storms. A cluster of storms/heavy rain began to develop over the lake around 11PM. By 2PM, it had dropped an inch of rain in Cleveland. By 9AM, more than 6 inches of rain fell in some areas in southern Summit county, northern Stark county. A few reports near Strongsville also reported around 6 inches.
The lightning around 4:30AM was equally as impressive
Temps are climbing with another 90 possible.....
Back to the flooding and storms. A cluster of storms/heavy rain began to develop over the lake around 11PM. By 2PM, it had dropped an inch of rain in Cleveland. By 9AM, more than 6 inches of rain fell in some areas in southern Summit county, northern Stark county. A few reports near Strongsville also reported around 6 inches.
The lightning around 4:30AM was equally as impressive
Temps are climbing with another 90 possible.....
Monday, July 18, 2011
Heat is heading for Ohio..But For How Long?
I was "off the grid" for a week and a half resting and spending time with the family. In the midst of some badly needed R&R, the heat in the center of the country has slowly expanded north and slightly east. So far, Northeastern Ohio has only had 5 days above 90 through July 17th. As the heat slides east this week, it isn't a question of weather or not we hit 90 but how many times.
More than 10 states are under "excessive heat warnings" Monday, July 18th
The 100+ degree heat is almost to the Canadian border
...and south into Texas
Heat index readings of at least 120 will be common
The forecast high temps for all of us in Northeastern Ohio are still high...and climbing by the end of the week. A few storms might reduce the temps a bit but not much
The "heat ridge" is still strong as show below
By early next week, the projections pushes the heat back west which should allow daytime highs to stay in the mid 80s for most of northern Ohio. So if you are getting married next week or if you are finishing up baseball season or heading out for "two-a-days" for football, the oppressive heat should not be as much of a problem
More than 10 states are under "excessive heat warnings" Monday, July 18th
The 100+ degree heat is almost to the Canadian border
...and south into Texas
Heat index readings of at least 120 will be common
The forecast high temps for all of us in Northeastern Ohio are still high...and climbing by the end of the week. A few storms might reduce the temps a bit but not much
The "heat ridge" is still strong as show below
By early next week, the projections pushes the heat back west which should allow daytime highs to stay in the mid 80s for most of northern Ohio. So if you are getting married next week or if you are finishing up baseball season or heading out for "two-a-days" for football, the oppressive heat should not be as much of a problem
Wednesday, July 06, 2011
Monday, July 04, 2011
Remember the cool summer of 2009? Arctic Oscillation was historically low
Two summers ago was cool compared to this and last summer. The arctic was responsible for that abnormally "not hot" summer. More on the rest of this summer later this week!
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